The latest report from the NBS has headline inflation y/y at 11.3% in November. This uptick is very modest compared with October, by just 2bps on this occasion. Food price inflation rose by 2bps to 13.3% y/y while the core measure declined by -11bps to 9.8%. Our expectation, shared with the wire services, was 11.5% y/y for the headline measure.
- In November, m/m inflation was 0.8%, compared with 0.7% recorded in the previous month. The pattern for food prices was similar, with an increase from 0.8% to 0.9%.
- Similar to the past three months, core inflation remained at single-digit level. The bureau’s report noted that price pressures were particularly high for fuels and lubricants, personal transport as well as for medical services.
- The report also tracks inflation by state, with the highest (13.0% y/y) in Taraba and Rivers, and the lowest (8.7%) in Kwara. However, it cautions that household baskets vary across states. Edo state’s food price inflation of 16.5% y/y was the highest of all states.
Consumer price inflation (% chg y/y)
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); FBNQuest Capital Research
- In its latest meeting held in November, the MPC observed that the near-term upside risks to inflation remained: the disruption to agricultural production and distribution arising from flooding, insurgency in the North-East, high cost of energy, anticipated spending in the run-up to Christmas festivities and campaign-related spending towards the upcoming 2019 general elections.
- Our view is similar to the CBN/MPC. Looking ahead to December, we see inflation at 11.8% y/y.
