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June 16, 2017

The one-track mind of policymakers

Ineffective monetary tools for the jobThe CBN and the MPC are not inclined to use the tools at their disposal to counter the recession and the spike in m/m headline inflation. They suggest, and we sympathise with their thinking, that the causes of these macro ills are beyond their influence. In layman’s language, they did not create the mess and are not responsible for clearing it up. The MPC has not altered its stance this year and we do not expect any change until next year.Gentle easing in 2018We see lower inflation in 2018 on the easing of the supply-side constraints and modest rate cuts totaling 100bps from the MPC in response.A bold experiment but unlikely to succeedPolicymakers are focused on fx, and little else. They have identified inflows from...

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June 8, 2017

A tortuous recovery ahead

The slow road out of recessionA modest recovery is underway in our view, based upon fiscal expansion, a pick-up in...

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April 30, 2017

Nigerian Economic Outlook: A sea-change, subject to some tall waves

A boost from the recent electionsAll Nigerian financial asset prices have recovered since the election victory of Muhammadu Buhari on...

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January 25, 2017

So much to do; so little time

Fiscal policy in the driving seatThe 2017 budget proposals are still more expansionary than the previous year’s, set a heady...

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