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January 22, 2018

2018 Research Outlook: Elections approaching; not a lost year

A little political distraction The race for the presidency in February 2019 has started although there are no formal candidates as yet. The winning zonal alliance of 2015 and the victory for the APC could be repeated. It is said that such years are lost because of the political distraction. In our view 2018 is not lost because the FGN will step up the pace of its fiscal expansion, notably with capital releases. Modest growth ahead, too This fiscal stimulus is a core element in our GDP growth forecast of 2.4% this year. Additionally, we see an increase in crude oil production, selective private investment and the positive impact of the fx reforms. Beyond 2018 household consumption will recover, leading to an acceleration in growth. No fx regime change The...

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December 13, 2017

FBNQuest Q4 2017 Economic Outlook: Towards the finishing line, still time to deliver

Out of recession into weak growth The economy has returned to the growth path, although not in per head terms...

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June 16, 2017

The one-track mind of policymakers

Ineffective monetary tools for the job The CBN and the MPC are not inclined to use the tools at their...

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June 8, 2017

A tortuous recovery ahead

The slow road out of recession A modest recovery is underway in our view, based upon fiscal expansion, a pick-up...

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