Glass half full or half empty?

Beyond the statement that the vast majority of households and businesses do not enjoy regular power supplies, the analyst struggles to produce any independent measure of whether the sector has raised its game. The starting point has to be that supplies fluctuate considerably: the NBS quarterly Power Sector Report for Q4 2018 tells us that the thermal and hydro stations under coverage generated an average of 96,540 megawatt hours (MWh), ranging within a maximum and minimum of 113,270MWh and 66,090MWh respectively.

  • These variations can be largely explained by irregular gas supplies and uneven rainfall patterns.
  • Some additions to capacity are due shortly. Generation from the 40MW Kashimbilla hydro plant in Taraba State is scheduled to begin this month. Further increases are expected from the Zungeru (hydro) and Kaduna (thermal) power plants.
  • The NBS report puts actual consumption through the DISCOs at 7.06bn KWh in Q4, On the basis of a standard 24-hour conversion, this gives a daily average of 3,200MW. We find ourselves in a statistical minefield, and will merely quote the association of generating companies, which said in November that the capacity reaching Nigerian homes was then 3,970MW.
  • Consumers with prepaid meters per DISCO (Q4 2018; % shares)

    Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in conjunction with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC); FBNQuest Capital Research
  • For our chart we have taken the data from the NBS report to show a total of 1.67 million prepaid meters between the eleven DISCOs at end-2018. Metering is concentrated in the south and centre of the country.
  • Separately, we see a very different figure attributed to NERC of 3.59 million metered consumers at end-June.

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