March 2, 2019

February 2019; A marginal decline

Main conclusions:

  • February’s headline close to neutral at 50.4
  • Two of the five sub-indices in positive territory
  • Highest for delivery times
  • Lowest for output

We release today the latest reading (no 71) of our manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Nigeria, which takes the temperature of the sector. Our PMI was the first in Nigeria. It has developed into a useful forward indicator.

A PMI is a simple exercise. A selection of companies are asked their view each month on core variables in their business. The respondent, who is characteristically the purchasing manager in a larger firm, has three possible replies: better, unchanged or worse than the previous month. According to the standard methodology, 50 marks a neutral reading and anything higher suggests that the manufacturing economy is expanding. Readings should be released at the very beginning of the new month, subject to public holidays.

In our case, the five variables are output, employment, new orders, delivery times from suppliers and stocks of purchases. They have equal weightings in our index. Our reports cover a representative sample of the sector with large, medium-sized and small firms. Any broad economic conclusions on the basis of our reports need to be tentative because we are operating in a statistical near-void.

CLICK HERE to view the full report