April 10, 2019

A glance at sub-national GDP

We are constantly searching for new economic data and so are pleased that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has extended its GDP data series. The NBS has released data on states’ nominal gross domestic product for eleven states across Nigeria. This data compilation for sub-nationals has been done in phases and so we expect that other states will be included in the series in the near- to medium-term. According to the data, amongst the eleven states captured, Akwa-Ibom posted the highest GDP figure – N5.14trn (US$14.3bn), with its oil economy accounting for 60% of the total.

  • The eleven states captured in this first phase include: Akwa-Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Kaduna, Kano, Ogun, Osun, Oyo, Rivers and Zamfara. For the four oil-producing states listed, the oil economy accounted for at least 40% of their total GDP in 2017.

  • Agriculture was a strong driver of economic activity across each of the eleven states. Similar to the national accounts, crop production accounted for the largest share of agriculture GDP across states. Kaduna and Cross-River posted the highest agriculture GDP figures in 2017 – N1.01trn (US$281bn) and N1.05trn (US$292bn) respectively.  Since 2014, agriculture has contributed considerably to total GDP of both states.

  • Meanwhile, Bayelsa posted the lowest agriculture GDP figure in 2017. Despite having the longest coastline in Nigeria and significant inland waterways, local fish production in Bayelsa remains low. The fisheries segment contributed just 15% to total agriculture GDP in 2017.
Nominal GDP for specific states, 2017 (Ntrn)

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); FBNQuest Capital Research
  • As for manufacturing, the food, beverage and tobacco segment stood out across each of the eleven states. For Kano, it accounted for 37% of total manufacturing GDP in 2017. The presence of FMCG companies (such as flour millers and sugar refineries) in the state could be a contributor to the significant output from this segment.
  • To boost economic output per state as well as increase internally generated revenue, each state, based on its comparative advantage, should consider building economic clusters. This would enhance productivity and also attract investments.